SpaceX (SPCX) After the Lockup: Stock Rebounds to $133 — What Comes Next | Sam Smith
SPCX$133.11▲ +15.8% since Aug 6 low·SPCX 52-WK RANGE$104.83 – $225.64ATL → Recovering·AVG ANALYST TARGET$231.40▲ +73.8% upside·ARGUS TARGET$160▲ Upgraded to BUY Aug 7·BERNSTEIN TARGET$248▲ Raised from $239·CITI TARGET$200▲ BUY rating·LOCKUP AUG 6PASSED▲ Stock rose +6.1% that day·Q2 REVENUE$7.8B▲ +92% YoY·Q2 CAPEX$18.4B▼ vs $13B est.·SPCX$133.11▲ +15.8% since Aug 6 low·SPCX 52-WK RANGE$104.83 – $225.64ATL → Recovering·AVG ANALYST TARGET$231.40▲ +73.8% upside·ARGUS TARGET$160▲ Upgraded to BUY Aug 7·LOCKUP AUG 6PASSED▲ Stock rose +6.1% that day
✅UPDATE AUG 9: The August 6 lockup passed without a crash — SPCX rose +6.1% that day. Stock now at $133.11, approaching IPO price. Argus upgraded to Buy ($160), Bernstein raised target to $248, Citi rates Buy ($200). Avg analyst target: $231.40 (+73.8% upside). More lockup tranches ahead through December.
NASDAQ: SPCX · UPDATED AUG 09, 2026 · POST-LOCKUP
SpaceX Survived the $123B Lockup. Now What?
SPCX crashed to $105, rose 6% on lockup day, and is now trading at $133 — nearly back to IPO price. Analyst upgrades are rolling in. But more lockup tranches loom through December. Here's the full picture as of August 9.
By Sam SmithOriginally Aug 5 · Updated Aug 9, 2026~10 min readSPCX · Q2 FY2026 · Post-Lockup
// AUG 9 UPDATE — The $123B lockup expired August 6 without a crash. SPCX dipped to an all-time low of $104.83 intraday, then reversed — closing up +6.1%. The stock is now at $133.11, approaching its $135 IPO price. Argus upgraded to Buy ($160 target). Bernstein raised to $248. Citi maintains Buy at $200. Average analyst target: $231.40. More lockup tranches remain through December. The article below has been updated throughout to reflect current data.
It was supposed to be the moment that silenced the skeptics. SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company landed August 5: revenue up 92%, losses narrowing, EBITDA nearly tripling. The stock surged 10% on Tuesday. Then the full report hit — specifically the $18.4B capex line — and SPCX dropped 10% on Wednesday, closing at an all-time low of $108.27.
Advertisement
What happened next surprised almost everyone. The feared lockup expiration on August 6 did not trigger the crash Wall Street had priced in. SPCX dipped to $104.83 intraday — its absolute floor — and then buyers stepped in. The stock closed up +6.1% that day, on volume of over 107 million shares. As of August 9, SPCX trades at $133.11, nearly back to its $135 IPO price, with analyst upgrades rolling in and average consensus targets sitting at $231.40 — implying 73.8% upside from here.
Welcome to the most complicated stock in America. Here's the full picture.
🚀
SPCX // Q2 2026 EARNINGS SNAPSHOT
Current price (Aug 9)
$133.11
+27% from $104.83 ATL
Avg analyst target
$231.40
+73.8% upside · 28 Buy ratings
Q2 Revenue
$7.8B
+92% YoY · beat $6.8B est.
Adj. EBITDA
$3.5B
+191% YoY · beat $2.1B est.
Q2 Capex
$18.4B
vs. $13B est. — still the key risk
Lockup Aug 6
PASSED
+6.1% close · no crash
The Beat and the Miss — Same Report
The Q2 print was genuinely impressive on its face. Revenue grew 92%, EBITDA nearly tripled, and the net loss narrowed dramatically. All three business segments beat estimates. Then investors looked at the capex line.
⚖️
SPCX // WHAT IMPRESSED vs. WHAT SPOOKED
✓ The Good
Revenue beat+$1B above est.
EBITDA beat+$1.4B above est.
EPS loss-$0.09 vs -$0.26 est.
Revenue growth YoY+92%
AI contracts signed$14B
Revenue target 2030$1 trillion
✗ The Problem
Q2 capex$18.4B vs $13B est.
Full-year capex (implied)~$65B
Starlink ARPU-22% YoY
Profitability timelineNo guidance
Lockup expiry Aug 6$123B unlocked
Valuation (P/S)47–74x sales
The Capex Problem, Visualized
The single number defining the SpaceX investment debate is not the revenue figure. It's the capital expenditure trajectory. In one quarter, SpaceX spent nearly as much on capex as it did in all of 2025 — and management says Q3 and Q4 could look similar.
The implied full-year figure represents ~75% of the $85.7B raised in the IPO, consumed in a single calendar year. For every $1 of sequential revenue added in Q2, SpaceX spent ~$2.65 in capex.
"This may well be a generational opportunity — but it might be the next generation before it actually comes to fruition."
— Art Hogan, B. Riley Chief Markets Strategist
The $123 Billion Overhang
Even if you believe in SpaceX's ten-year vision, there is a near-term structural problem that has nothing to do with earnings: the lockup expiration. On August 6 — tomorrow — approximately 911.5 million shares, valued near $123 billion, become eligible to trade. That is larger than the entire existing tradable float.
📉
SPCX // RISK DASHBOARD
✅ RESULT (Aug 6) — The lockup passed without a crash. SPCX dipped to $104.83 intraday then recovered, closing +6.1%. Float more than doubled to 11.8% of shares outstanding. More tranches remain through December.
Metric
Value
Outcome
Shares unlocked Aug 6
911.5M
Float doubled — no mass sell-off
Intraday low Aug 6
$104.83
All-time low — buyers stepped in
Aug 6 close
+6.1%
Defied bearish consensus
Price Aug 9
$133.11
Near IPO price of $135
New public float
11.8% of shares
Up from 4.9% pre-lockup
Next lockup tranches
Through Dec 2026
Ongoing supply risk
Per Truist Chief Markets Strategist Keith Lerner — major IPOs over the past 15 years:
Metric
Historical Average
SpaceX (SPCX)
IPOs with 50%+ drawdown (year 1)
61% (19 of 31)
46% drawdown so far
First-week performance
Better than SPCX avg
-4%
First-month performance
Better than SPCX avg
-16%
Worst drawdown on record (HOOD)
-90%
Benchmark case
Average year-1 max drawdown
-55%
-46% to date (room to fall)
Analyst / Metric
Rating / Value
Note
Argus Research (Aug 7)
BUY · $160
Upgraded from Hold
Bernstein (Aug 7)
Outperform · $248
Raised from $239
Citi
BUY · $200
AI EBITDA beat by $1.5B
Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas)
Bullish
"Generational compounder"
Avg analyst target (28 Buy)
$231.40
+73.8% upside from $133
Bull target (high)
$800
Most optimistic case
Bear target (low)
$62
2 Sell ratings remain
Revenue target 2030
$1 trillion
Per Musk on earnings call
What Happens Next
📅
SPCX // KEY CATALYSTS AHEAD
🔓
AUGUST 6, 2026 — COMPLETED
Lockup Passed — Stock Rose +6.1%
911.5M shares unlocked. SPCX hit all-time low of $104.83 intraday, then reversed. Closed +6.1% as buyers overwhelmed sellers. Float doubled to 11.8% of shares outstanding. Volume: 107M+ shares.
RESOLVED — BULLISH OUTCOME
📡
Q3 2026 — ONGOING
Starship Program — Binary Events
A failed engine ignition in July already cost SPCX several consecutive down sessions. Starship milestones are now binary events: success drives a rally, failure triggers a selloff.
OPERATIONAL RISK
🖥️
AUGUST 7, 2026 — BREAKING
Cursor Acquisition — SpaceX May Complete Takeover Next Week
The Information reported August 7 that SpaceX may complete its acquisition of Cursor — the AI coding assistant — as early as next week. This would significantly expand SpaceX's AI segment beyond Grok and Colossus, adding a consumer-facing developer tool with millions of users.
NEW CATALYST — WATCH
💸
Q3 & Q4 2026 EARNINGS
Capex Watch — Will It Stay at $18B/Quarter?
Management indicated Q3 and Q4 could each remain near $18B. If confirmed, full-year capex hits ~$65B — consuming three-quarters of IPO proceeds in one year. This remains the key number to track.
FINANCIAL RISK
🎯
END OF 2026
$100B Revenue Run Rate — Musk's Own Target
Elon Musk committed on the earnings call to a $100B annual revenue run rate by end of 2026. This is more than 3x the current quarterly pace annualized. This either validates the valuation — or collapses it.
BULL CASE CATALYST
🌍
2030 TARGET
$1 Trillion Revenue — The Long Game
Previously projected for 2031, now targeting 2030 — with a "non-zero chance" of 2029. If achieved, today's valuation looks cheap. That's a very large if, over a very long horizon.
LONG-TERM BULL CASE
Frequently Asked Questions
❓
SPCX // INVESTOR QUESTIONS ANSWERED
SpaceX beat revenue, EBITDA, and EPS estimates in Q2 2026 — but capital expenditure came in at $18.4 billion, well above the $13 billion Wall Street expected. Management indicated Q3 and Q4 could remain at similar levels, implying full-year capex of ~$65 billion. The ratio was approximately $2.65 in capex for every $1 of sequential revenue added — alarming investors focused on cash burn.
On August 6, 2026, approximately 911.5 million SpaceX shares — valued near $123 billion — become eligible for trading. This is larger than the entire existing tradable float. It doesn't mean every insider sells immediately, but the additional supply creates structural downward pressure that markets price in before it happens. Analysts say this overhang could weigh on SPCX for weeks.
At 47–74x sales with no clear profitability timeline, SPCX is priced for perfection over a decade. The bull case is real — $1T revenue by 2030, AI compute leadership, Starlink dominance. The bear case is that the lockup expiration, ~$65B in implied capex, and absence of earnings guidance make the next 3–6 months treacherous. Most analysts recommend waiting for lockup volatility to pass before building a position.
Starlink subscriber growth exceeded Q2 expectations, but average revenue per user (ARPU) fell 22% year-over-year as SpaceX expanded into lower-priced international markets. The AI compute segment — leasing excess satellite and data center capacity — is currently the faster-growing revenue driver. SpaceX contracted ~$14B in cloud services agreements in Q2 alone.
SpaceX's $85.7B raise was the largest IPO in history. But post-IPO performance has been below average. Per Truist, 61% of major IPOs in the past 15 years saw a maximum drawdown above 50% in year one — SPCX is at 46% drawdown. Its first-week decline of 4% and first-month decline of 16% both underperformed the historical average for comparable IPOs.
As of August 9, the picture looks meaningfully different than it did four days ago. The feared lockup crash did not materialize. The stock found its floor at $104.83, bounced hard, and is now approaching the IPO price with analyst upgrades arriving in quick succession. The Cursor acquisition rumor, if confirmed, adds another dimension to the AI segment story that Citi already called the quarter's biggest positive surprise.
The risks have not disappeared. More lockup tranches arrive through December. The capex trajectory remains extraordinary. Profitability has no clear timeline. And at $133, SPCX still trades at a valuation that assumes perfection over a decade.
But for investors who watched from the sidelines, the question has quietly shifted. Last week it was: how far does this fall? This week it is: did we just see the bottom?
The rocket still points up. The floor may be in. And the ride from here is going to be anything but boring.
DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Originally published August 5, 2026 · Updated August 9, 2026. Data sourced from SpaceX public filings, Yahoo Finance, CNN Business, Investing.com, TradingView, TradingKey, Forbes, Argus Research, Bernstein, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and analyst consensus reports. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
